By Michael Moore
I TOOK a straw poll in the change room after a game of ice hockey the other night at the Philip Ice Skating rink. On this measure it seems the Labor Party does have an edge for the ACT Election in October. However, it is not a lay down misere, with the Liberals looking much better than could have been imagined a year ago. And there is certainly a fair interest in the cross benches.  I’m getting the same sense from Canberra taxi drivers.
The hockey conversation started with a casual question from Matt Tattersall that lifted above the general chatter: “So, Michael, how come I have not been written up in your column just yet – or any of your hockey mates?”
“What have you to offer?” I asked as the putrid fumes of sweat, cold and hockey equipment permeated the conversation.
“Well, I like Jon Stanhope and he’s getting my vote.”
A few nods of support and another comment from the goalie: “He’s certainly done a few stupid things – but I think that he is better than that other guy...” (whose name he could not recall until someone suggested, “Zed?”) “Yeah, that’s him”. 
A ball of crushed ice that had been scraped from the edge of a blade landed on the back of my neck. “Stanhope’s been there too long. He’s getting arrogant.”
General agreement!  “Trouble is, look at the alternatives,” from someone removing his shin and knee guards. 
An anthropologist would probably be able to assess the significance of the cross-section of people who contributed to the straw poll.  Sure, amongst these casual players were some Canadians and Finns (who don’t vote anyway). However, the other players include a labourer, a spray painter, an electrician and a final-year medical student.
It’s a shame the parties don’t use this polling technique. Their current opinion polls use a carefully planned approach across a randomly selected sample of the population. These polls give a very good indication of the standing of parties at the time they are taken and provide an excellent insight into broad community thinking. Such polls are then cross-checked against focus groups. Decisions can then be made to vary election campaign planning if necessary.
The problem with formal polls and focus groups is that they wind up setting the agenda. Polls become the leader instead of the politicians. The Federal election provided a clear demonstration of the problem with Kevin Rudd even being dubbed “me too”. The reason the major parties come up with the same policies is because the polling techniques they use are so good.
We’ve just had the Labor Party and the Liberal Party both saying that it is time to duplicate the Gungahlin Drive Extension. They should not have needed polling to see it – the need for duplication was obvious from long before it was built.  However, the polling is showing them it is an issue.
Education is another. Zed is promising smaller class sizes and Labor is promising more support to teachers. No doubt their polling has identified that education is a bread-and-butter issue that really is important to voters. The result of this approach is that we should not expect huge differences between the parties. They will try to determine what the voters want through polling and then promise to deliver it. It is now a tried and proven technique.
But what happened to leadership? We should be looking for the person or party that can say what they think will provide a better future for Canberra and then set about convincing us.
Formal polling has become a normal political tool. However, Canberra is a very educated electorate that is looking for something to distinguish the political hopefuls. Perhaps I should introduce a few of them to my ice-hockey mates. Now that would be a reality check!

Michael Moore is a former independent member of the ACT Legislative Assembly and minister for health.  He plays social ice-hockey.